US Non-Farm Payroll

Again we are back to the optimism, markets along with analysts believe that a recovery will be seen later this year, believing that the fourth quarter contraction will be the worst to come as the ongoing support and interventions from governments might cushion economies from

more destruction.

Indices boosted by the slender optimism which diffused in markets yesterday, the S&P 500 inclined 0.34% or 3.08 points reaching 909.73 levels, NASDAQ composite inclined 1.12% or 17.95 points reaching 1617.01 levels, yet Dow Jones Industrial average lost 0.31% or 27.24 points reaching 8742.46 levels.

But all this optimism might be wiped out later on today as markets are waiting for the majors market mover which is the US Non-Farm Payroll, expectations clears out that more job termination took place in December due to the weakening global demand and the intensified Credit Crisis.

It’s been a whole year of termination; all sectors of the economy along with the financial institutions that were obligated to file for bankruptcy had resulted in escalating the unemployment rates in the United States. But it did not really stop at the financial sector in December two of the largest US car manufacturers were on the brink of officially admitting that they have no money to keep functioning, which made them terminate a portion of workers just to ease down their expenses.

General Motors and Chrysler faced a harsh month in December, which obligated them to run for the congress in order to ask them for a bailout to keep them going, yet the bailout was stamped with disapproval by the senates saying that they can’t keep on bailing out all the huge companies in the States.

Markets got struck with the disapproval where the Bush administration had to move fast just to prevent a second fallout after Lehman Brothers that slipped all the confidence out from the markets leaving the stocks markets with huge losses. Bush agreed to give them a total of 17.8 billion dollars yet on one condition that before 31st of March 2009 the two companies must be ready with a restructuring plan, or they have to give back the money.

Due to the stunning harsh times the economy lived in expectations of the non-farm payroll varies, the range falls between lowest -750 terminated job to the highest -350 thousand job; pessimist analysts believe that the weakness seen in the past month managed to create more job terminations yet the optimist say that the worse is almost over.

Paulson the US treasury secretary was considered the most powerful official where he tried his best in salvaging the economy with the 700 billion dollars plan; he prevented some fallout by purchasing preferred stocks in various financial institutions reaching to more than 170 companies, in addition to bailing out the largest banks such as Citigroup, yet he did not really achieve in restoring backing the long lost confidence which made most indices across the world to close the prior years trading with more than 40% of losses.

With the fear taking place in markets, future indices fell 15 points reaching 8681 levels, along with the S&P 500 falling 0.70 point reaching 906.00 levels and NASDAQ fell 1.00 points reaching 1248.50. Also the hesitation was seen in the Asian markets, the Japanese Nikkei Index lost 0.45% or 39.62 point reaching 8836.80 levels and Hang Seng index lost 0.63% or 91.85 points reaching 14323.34 levels.

But before we see the Non Farm Payroll reading markets will see some other fundamentals from the European Continent which will continue to clear out that economies are still struggling with the falling demand levels in addition to the rapid fall in inflationary pressures.

We will start with the Royal Producer Prices, the input prices eased to 3.0% in December from the previous 7.5%, the monthly input climbed slightly to -2.0% from the previous -3.3%, the output prices fell 0.6% on the month easing to 4.0% on the year, also the core PPI reading fell 0.2% on the month with the yearly core output easing down to 4.7% from the previous 5.1%.

The fall in commodity prices and the dropping demand pressured prices to fall down, where crude prices fell from the all time high which was recorded last year to close at $42.00 per barrel, easing down the elevated energy bills which was seen earlier in the prior year.

Its not just prices or inflation, the housing sector in the United Kingdom is still under huge pressures, where now the Central bank must start considering a new intervention just to buy some homes in order to salvage the left over from the falling financial sector.

The situation remains gloomy and the economies no longer can survive this harsh downfall in demand levels which are threatening them with a bigger demon which is known by deflation, based on those fears central banks are heading now toward a zero interest rates policy in order to revive back their economies.

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US Dollar Surges Despite Spike in Unemployment - Is Risk Aversion Back?

US non-farm payrolls fell by a whopping 524,000 in December, which was broadly in line with expectations, and brought the cumulative amount of job losses in 2008 to 2.589 million, the most since 1945. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose more than expected to a 16-year high of 7.2 percent from 6.8 percent. The data only confirms the already bleak outlooks for growth going forward, as the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting showed that some members saw the potential for a "prolonged contraction."

Looking at historical data from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), between 1945 and 1990 the peak in unemployment generally coincided with an end to recessions. However, since 1990 the unemployment rate has extended higher long after recessions ended, as was the case in the contractions experienced during 1990-1991 and 2001. This suggests that until we see the end of this economic slowdown in the US, we cannot even begin to judge where the unemployment rate will peak, but it doesn't look good given the rapid increase in job losses over the past year.

So why did the US dollar rally in response? As it stands, most of the major currency pairs are trading within massive ranges, but major support levels for the US dollar have helped to stabilize its decline. For EUR/USD, falling trendline resistance prevented the pair from rising higher, while yesterday's highs weighed on GBP/USD. From a fundamental perspective, it is necessary to consider the fact that interest rates in the US can't really go any lower since the Federal Reserve has already cut the fed funds target to a record low range of 0.0 percent - 0.25 percent, and it is that interest rate dynamic (or lack of it), that is allowing the greenback to brush off this abysmal data.

Furthermore, other trends witnessed today, including the __ percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and surge in the Japanese yen, suggest that risk aversion is lingering in the financial markets. In reality, all it will take is some negative piece of news to shake investor confidence to lead equities to plunge and send the US dollar and Japanese yen spiraling higher.

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Paulson Updates on Government Efforts

In an interview today, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson gave a status report on the government’s efforts to revive growth and stabilize the markets. Among his comments, Paulson highlighted the importance of ensuring potential homeowners with access to credit. However, high interest rates and tight credit due to the high level of defaults are still making this difficult to accomplish.

The monetary policy official said that early loan modifications given in effort to aid existing homeowners was so far displaying unsatisfying results. Also, regarding the financial system, after the widespread panic in October, Paulson stated that there was clear ‘stability’ emerging from the markets.

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German Government Expects Contraction in 2009

Despite encouraging news that retail sales rose by 0.7 percent in November, the German government is anticipating a contracting economy of 3.0 percent in 2009. Germany remains one of the more successful countries in the European Union fending off the worst parts of the recession, buoyed by the fact that less than one in twenty consumers have direct exposure to slumping equities.

Recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that the government plans to only release €25 billion ($35 billion) for a second stimulus plan. Conditions aren’t as sanguine as they might appear: a devastating fourth quarter is expected in part by industrial production and exports dropping by 6.4 percent and 10.6 percent in November, respectfully, and unemployment rising to 7.6% in December.

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New Zealand Dollar Technical Outlook

I would still like to see the NZDUSD complete 5 waves up from .5186 but with patterns in the GBPUSD and AUDUSD suggesting weakness, I am not confident that Kiwi will exceed .6090.

In any case, a push through would target Fibonacci resistance at .6183, which is reinforced by former congestion.

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China's Struggling Airlines Get Tax Break

China is taking new steps to shore up its aviation industry amid global economic turmoil, giving struggling airlines a $360 million tax break and $26 billion in loans to its main aircraft maker, state media said Friday.
The airline aid follows injections of government capital to help two of China's three main state-owned carriers through a travel slump. The lending to Aviation Industry Corp. of China reflects Beijing's continued desire to build up a civilian aircraft industry despite a decline in demand for planes.

Airlines will be exempt from a tax on fuel surcharges through 2010, a move that will save them up to 2.5 billion yuan ($360 million), the newspaper Shanghai Securities Journal said. It said the step is retroactive to Jan. 1, 2008.
China's airlines lost 7 billion yuan in January-November, according to state media. Beijing has injected a total of 13 billion yuan into China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines.
Meanwhile, a group of 10 state-owned banks signed an agreement with AVIC on Thursday on a rotating credit line of up to 176 billion yuan, the newspaper China Securities News and the Xinhua News Agency reported.

AVIC is a co-owner of Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China, the lead company in the Chinese government's effort to produce large passenger jets to compete with global giants Boeing Co. and Airbus Industrie.
AVIC general manager Lin Zuoming said the money will be used for projects by the company's subsidiaries but gave no details, the Securities News said.
The push into commercial aviation comes despite government orders for carriers to cut back on aircraft purchases.

"We encourage airlines to cancel or delay 2009 aircraft orders," Yang Guoqing, deputy chief of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, said this week, according to the China Daily newspaper. "It is the duty of airlines to cut capacity, defer plane orders, return leased aircraft and ground or sell older planes."
China's first homegrown commercial aircraft, a 90-seat model made by an AVIC subsidiary, had its maiden flight in November and the government says it hopes to produce a 150-seat plane by 2014 to compete with Boeing and Airbus.
The lending group was led by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the country's biggest state-owned lender, according to news reports. They said ICBC, China Construction Bank Ltd. and China Citic Bank Ltd. each contributed 30 billion yuan, with the rest coming from smaller lenders.

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Canadian Dollar Could Pull Back on Friday

The Canadian dollar held its own against the US dollar on Thursday, despite the release of disappointing data, as the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) tumbled to a record low of 39.1 in December. This marked the second straight month that the index held below 50, which signals a deterioration in business activity, and a further breakdown of the report also shows that employment conditions contracted for the fourth consecutive month.

This reading suggests that Friday’s releases could have bearish implications for the Loonie, as the Canadian net employment change is forecasted to have fallen by 20,000 during December while the unemployment rate is anticipated to have risen to a nearly three-year high of 6.5 percent from 6.3 percent. Since the employment change tends to be a very volatile release, this should have the greatest impact on the Canadian dollar, with a sharper than expected drop likely to weigh on the currency and an unexpected positive result likely to push it higher.

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