US Dollar Surges Despite Spike in Unemployment - Is Risk Aversion Back?

US non-farm payrolls fell by a whopping 524,000 in December, which was broadly in line with expectations, and brought the cumulative amount of job losses in 2008 to 2.589 million, the most since 1945. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose more than expected to a 16-year high of 7.2 percent from 6.8 percent. The data only confirms the already bleak outlooks for growth going forward, as the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting showed that some members saw the potential for a "prolonged contraction."

Looking at historical data from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), between 1945 and 1990 the peak in unemployment generally coincided with an end to recessions. However, since 1990 the unemployment rate has extended higher long after recessions ended, as was the case in the contractions experienced during 1990-1991 and 2001. This suggests that until we see the end of this economic slowdown in the US, we cannot even begin to judge where the unemployment rate will peak, but it doesn't look good given the rapid increase in job losses over the past year.

So why did the US dollar rally in response? As it stands, most of the major currency pairs are trading within massive ranges, but major support levels for the US dollar have helped to stabilize its decline. For EUR/USD, falling trendline resistance prevented the pair from rising higher, while yesterday's highs weighed on GBP/USD. From a fundamental perspective, it is necessary to consider the fact that interest rates in the US can't really go any lower since the Federal Reserve has already cut the fed funds target to a record low range of 0.0 percent - 0.25 percent, and it is that interest rate dynamic (or lack of it), that is allowing the greenback to brush off this abysmal data.

Furthermore, other trends witnessed today, including the __ percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and surge in the Japanese yen, suggest that risk aversion is lingering in the financial markets. In reality, all it will take is some negative piece of news to shake investor confidence to lead equities to plunge and send the US dollar and Japanese yen spiraling higher.

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