Canadian Dollar Could Pull Back on Friday

The Canadian dollar held its own against the US dollar on Thursday, despite the release of disappointing data, as the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) tumbled to a record low of 39.1 in December. This marked the second straight month that the index held below 50, which signals a deterioration in business activity, and a further breakdown of the report also shows that employment conditions contracted for the fourth consecutive month.

This reading suggests that Friday’s releases could have bearish implications for the Loonie, as the Canadian net employment change is forecasted to have fallen by 20,000 during December while the unemployment rate is anticipated to have risen to a nearly three-year high of 6.5 percent from 6.3 percent. Since the employment change tends to be a very volatile release, this should have the greatest impact on the Canadian dollar, with a sharper than expected drop likely to weigh on the currency and an unexpected positive result likely to push it higher.

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British Pound Surges Following Bank of England’s Rate Cut

British Pound Surges Following Bank of England’s Rate Cut - Why?

The British pound remained strong on Thursday, gaining against every major currency except the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar, despite the fact the Bank of England cut the Bank Rate to the lowest level since the bank was founded in 1694. What gives? First of all, the BOE’s 50 basis point reduction was in line with expectations, so there was no surprise factor coming in to play.

Meanwhile, though the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) subsequent policy statement was quite bearish on economic conditions in the UK and abroad, they did not give any indication that they would cut rates again during their February 5 meeting. In essence, the British pound’s rally today indicates that the currency’s nearly 30 percent drop against the US dollar and 53 percent plunge versus the Japanese yen over the past 6 months has gone above and beyond pricing in rate cuts by the BOE. At this juncture, actual rate cuts are having little impact on the currency markets, as traders are more focused on comparative long-term interest rate expectations.

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Euro Ends Day Just Below Key Resistance

Euro Ends Day Just Below Key Resistance - Will Euro-zone Retail Sales Weigh on Friday?

The euro continued to edge higher versus the US dollar, but major resistance at 1.3750 is blocking the pair’s way higher. Economic data out of the Euro-zone still suggests that the European Central Bank will cut rates next Thursday, but as we saw with the British pound and the Bank of England’s rate cut today, that doesn’t mean the currency will automatically fall lower. Nevertheless, looking at the data on hand, a measure of confidence amongst European consumers and executives fell during December to the worst level since record keeping began in 1985, suggesting that consumption is sure to slow further and businesses are far less prone to invest.

Furthermore, the Euro-zone’s unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 7.8 percent in November from 7.7 percent, and given the dour outlooks for the economy, the deterioration of the labor market is likely to worsen. Friday’s data should add to this gloomy mix, as retail sales growth in the Euro-zone is forecasted to have stagnated during the month of November, leaving the annual rate negative for the sixth straight month. Such a result would be in line with the steady drop in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Euro-zone services sector, which has signaled a contraction in business activity throughout the second half of 2008. In fact, given this correlation, the timelier PMI results suggest that retail sales will remain weak not only in this reading for November, but for December as well. The impact on the euro should be minimal, barring a sharp, unexpected decline.

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Dollar Drops On BoE Cut, US Retailers Suffer

Dollar drops as BoE cuts less than expected, US retailers suffer in December

The dollar fell across the board Thursday as the Bank of England cut its key interest rate to a record low -- but by less than had been expected by some.
Meanwhile, U.S. retailers rang in with glum sales figures for December and the Labor Department said Americans seeking public jobless aid jumped unexpectedly by more than 100,000 people.

The 16-nation euro rose to $1.3725 in late afternoon trading in New York from $1.3614 late Wednesday, while the British pound climbed to $1.5228 from $1.5132.
The Bank of England cut its rate by half a percentage point to 1.5 percent, the lowest level in the bank's 315-year history. The British economy has been battered by a housing crisis and a string of failed retailers.

There is now increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to cut its rate from the current 2.5 percent when it meets on Jan. 15. Most of the other major world economies, including the U.S. and Japan, have already ratcheted rates down to near zero, and analysts expect Britain will continue to chop at rates in an effort to propel economic activity.
Lower rates can help jump-start an economy, but weigh on a currency as investors seek higher returns elsewhere.

The dollar also fell to 91.40 Japanese yen from 92.65 late Wednesday, and dropped to 1.0930 Swiss francs from 1.1026.
U.S. news didn't help the buck -- retailers' same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least one year, a key metric, mostly sank in December. Even Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which had benefited in 2008 from consumers' trading down, reported that its sales rose by 1.2 percent last month, less than had been expected. Wal-Mart also cut its profit outlook for the fourth quarter.

Also on Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits slipped last week, but the number of people continuing to file claims for aid rose to a new 26-year high of 4.61 million. And the Labor Department on Friday is expected to report that the unemployment rate grew from 6.7 percent to 7 percent in December.

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Official INACTION is as conducive to the inflation of financial bubbles as is official ACTION. By refusing to restructure the banking system, to introduce appropriate bankruptcy procedures, corporate transparency and good corporate governance, by engaging in protectionism and isolationism, by avoiding the implementation of anti competition legislation – many countries have fostered the vacuum within which financial crises breed.

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